Something about stocks related to telecom sector in India at this point of time...

I've not tried to list the facts in here, I could not find much time to compose all the references to readings and articles I've read which made me compile this. This is more like a work sheet for me, just scribble my thoughts. I hope to make these more structured writing, more like an article published on a website or something, giving references when needed and more organized. Its again on one of those items on my wiss list, which always keeps growing and never got done... sad, but true...
I've tried to dwell on the over all picture. I dont expect you to ask me to justify my opinions based on facts/stats, which I can. At the same time, I can argue completely against the writing here based on facts/stats as well. Which is what I see in financial expert's opinion and views, news channels and websites. Thats why you have so many different varying opinions all well supported by graphs and stats.
You have to trust your instincts and make honest effort possible to make the best decision possible.
Nobody will ever tell us what is going to happen...

Indian Telecom Sector

Crowded

Too many players grabbing up the seemingly ever increasing subscriber base. Eyeing the huge subscriber base, the telecome sector seems to be getting crowded with too many service providers.
Stiff pricing competetionTo attract the subscribers, new entrants tend to start attractive tariffs with lower prices than existing competetion. The existing service providers in order to retain and add subscribers, either try to match or beat the prices further down.
Lowering the prices comes in all innovative ways - pulse rate based on seconds, 1 paise per second and then 1/2 paise per second and even roaming comes to paise per second and so on... not to mention teen/youth oriented SMS tarrifs...

Technology (r)evolution and Return on Investment

Service providers can not just bring down the prices without bringing about changes into their technologies and infrastructure involved. This does cost a lot, not just interms of acquiring new tech, but also the way in which ROI gets affected.
1. Technology seems to be evolving all the time and something revolutionary comes up which makes an year old technology almost obsolete. So companies, inorder to keep up with the comptetion, dont get as much time to expect Return on Investment on each technology/infrastrutre they invest in. 2. They constantly need to invest in new tech and infrastructre. At this stage, there seems to be a large gap between the pace at which tech is evolving and the rate at which companies can reap benefits out of it. 3. Under these conditions, it always a huge strain on financing new investments. At the same time its inevitable and probably the only way to survive.

Subscriber Base

In India already the Subscriber base has crossed 40% which means, more than 40 Crore people have mobiles in their hands now.
Going from here would be a difficult task in increasing the number of subscribers. This 40% more or less covers most of the urban areas and to a large extent rural areas if not all. If the number of users has to grow, then it has to be in rural and remote areas and economically challening environment and people. Ofcourse, with dual SIMs and multiple connection per person is always going to add, but it would be hard to count on it for large increase.
Although comparing %, India still lags. 1 out of 3 people carry mobile, which is less compared to other countries with high number of subscribers. In my opinion, practically speaking it might be difficult to acheive that kind of percentage in India. However, its very much possible.

What's after roller coaster

Considering the above points, its going to be a very challening task for any service provider to see through the tough environment. Its going to take lot of financial backing, right moves and pain.
Unless some game plan changes, its hard to imagine all the companies can with stand the low price competetion for long, considering the kind of investment it takes for tech changes, infrastruture, regulatory changes and change in competetion game. This might lead to lots of M&A activities in the future.
Telecom stocks have got beaten down a lot and they might get more beatings as well. In my opinion, its the matter of how long. Right now, there seems to be a broad sense of negativeness about telecom stocks. On the other hand, it might be one of the opportunites to cash in on these stocks for a target of 1-3 or more years term, if you think they (companies) are not going to die down.
All said, life is about uncertainities. Its upto you to decide, 'coz you can hear 1000 different opinions from 100 people, and opinion changes as does the market :)

A System as an abstract entity is built upon blocks. Blocks upon constructs. Constructs upon fundamentals.

Each of these entities are self contained, consistent and unbiased. I like to emphasize here on being unbiased. It plays subtle and a very crucial role in the strength and the consistency of the whole system.

Live a day without being biased to experience the strength and beauty of it. Its not a simple task for sure.


Blocks can be objects or concepts. Objects can be made up of other objects and concepts. Concepts are plain entities made up on constructs.


Constructs are built upon fundamentals. Based on most common usage and as a mere reusable component to comprehend/build bigger entities like blocks and concepts.


Fundamentals are the ones which are taken for being understood without a doubt. For the sake of keeping it within my explanatary boundary. I am not taking up the debate of resolution of a fundamental entity. It can be infinitesimally broken to even more sub fundamentalistic entities. May not really end anywhere, but may convolute back to the same point where we started. Just my hypothesis.


Ok. The whole point I started about "Abstraction of a System" is to explain about unbias and its relation to the strength of the System. Being consistent in being unbiased keeps the System safe for reasons, safe for building/extending it further.


The moment bias sets in to the System, its the doom for the system. Its a crack, an anamoly which invariable results in structural collapse. It causes the system to lose its direction, strength and the purpose.

Lets get on with this (un)bias, which has been described as one of the main backbone component for the structural stability of a System.

Bias - Any definition of a Block, concept, construct or a relationship which is driven (atleast partly) by influence. Influence which is not based on atleast one reason. Here the reason is defined as a construct, which makes it self-contained, consistent and unbiased. That makes it a recursive definition, which I think is by its nature. This recursiveness is the factor which feeds my point said above while defining "Fundamentals". I think hard about breaking this loop, a terminating condition. I've not seen it so far. Frankly, in my opine, I do not believe that it ever can reach a terminating condition.

Another important and subtle concept in the above definition is "Influence which is not based on atleast one reason."

Its about the possibilities of multitude of reasons to define the samething. To understand it better, it can be started by reasoning for transition from one state to another state for a given entity. By our knowledge of science, we know there is one and only one particular reason which causes the given transistion. Thats the basis of all our school or college experiments. To rule out all but one reason.

However, I am talking about the contradiction here. I am talking of multiple (possibly innumerable) reasons to cause that transistion. I will take this up hard sometime. Its a real rocking concept to shake the whole fundamentals, there by creating a complete chaos in the whole definition of the fundamentals. A complete choas which makes up the world (so thought stable world) we think we are living. A chotic world anyways, I suppose everyone agrees to it :)

The above explanation is so vulenrable that it provides so much room to hypothesis (theory)which can invade this definition and destroy it completely. It need not stop there, by projecting the same theory further and further it can re-establish the same concept again (which was destroyed earlier by the same theory). Its as much true as it is false.

By the way, where did I lose myself? Yes, defining Bias. Yet to be defined concept in the definition of Bias is, the "Influence". Influence is a factor which is a combination of one or more reasons. For instance, to build a shade - reasons could be "shelter from rain", "shelter from sunlight" and may be more. It can be thought of as needs which can be based on the context, blocks (objects), constructs while building/extending or even downsizing the System.

Now imagine, how difficult it must be to have a system in place in our socities, human civilization. I hold the concept of the "State" about our governments and Law as very close attempt towards building a system. Its an attempt to build a system, however its not an ideal system.

Its a task which nearly looks impossible considering the fact it has to deal with number of factors that affect it, number of different people involved in creating it, number of factor and people affected by it.

Adore Flat-coated Retriever

I've always been fond of dogs...

I came across this breed of dog, Flat-coated retriever. From that moment on I am in love with this breed. I will have atleast one of them as my pet in days to come.

It sure looks awesome companion. I'm looking forward for those days.

Another breed which has caught my attention is Gordon Setter.

Please feel free to discuss anything about FC retriever....

Google it... you will find more...

Few one-liners from me....

** Make it Life **

** As I reach home **

** Yes... bit emotional... but thats how it is... we are living life **

** All good things are not desirable **

** Competition is the relationship between them **

** Rein thy wilderness... **

**Feeling is a manifestation of thinking, where the relation between the two seem to have got obscured...**

**Elements of Life...**

**Essence of the moment...**

**Fundamental constructs or is it just "a" construct...**

Memoirs of Island - Andaman Islands

Its one of the best tour I've made in my life.

We toured the islands between 06 June to 10 June, 2007. It was a off-season time and the place was without much tourists. And that's the kinda time we want to tour as well.

Myself and Naveed did this tour. We must thank my close Friend Yogi and Nags for this trip. We all had planned it together in the month of March. However due to my work commitments myself and Naveed pulled out of the trip.

After we landed in Port-Blair, we had no idea as to go where and do what and when. We just had Tea in a stall infront of the Air-Port then took an Auto-rickshaw to the city.

We were just lucky as well as with our keen-ness to try new things and take things as they come, we ended up in a very nice hotel, Megapode-nest. It's located on a hill just over looking the Phoenix Bay Jetty. A nice view of the Sea from the room, restaurant, lawn with view of the Sea down-hill... it was a nice beautiful place.

We made visits to Anthroplogy, Aqua and Samudrika Museums on the same day after getting refreshed. We visited to Lighting show at Cellular jail in the evening. Cellular jail is a giant structure.

Second day we headed to Havelock Island - Its exotic.
We stayed in a resort called Coconut Groove. I think Wild Orchid, Island Vinnies are nice ones. We came to know of Island Vinnies only later and Wild Orhid was under renovation. Only 4 of the 25 resorts were in operation when we had been there.

We hired a motor cycle for our local travelling. It was Rs. 300/- per day for the bike plus the fuel cost (Rs. 60 per litre). Havelock island has no petrol pumps and you have to get all your fuel from the person who has provided the vehicle.

It has two tourist beaches - Radha Nagar (Much of the tourists visit just this) and Kala Pather (Black Stone - not many people do go there). The island has a small strip of road running just along the beach all the way to the Kala Pather beach. One can find hell lot of places to have fun on the beach while going on this road.

I had the best time of the tour on one of these spots where we stopped and had a great time in collecting small shells. This is the place where it was nothing less than my imagination and fascination of beach I had in my mind. We did collect very small beautiful cute cowries and few other fantastic shells.

Kala pather beach is little ferocious in looks. It has a Elephant training camp there. We could not spend much time there as it was with full of small creatures on the shore.

We rode till the dead end of the road and returned. Then we went to Radha Nagar beach.

Radha Nagar beach is not well maintained. It was quite dirty even in this off season time. However, its very nice to be there at evening times. When it will be desolated and you have 1.5 to 2Km stretch of the beach to stroll and sit and listen to waves on the shore.

All the resorts are like huts here. No concrete structures. All the resorts are located along the beach and thats one wonderful thing. Beaches are amazing - shallow, aqua blue and calm. Awesome place.

In the early morning you can make a visit to Elephant Beach with the help of local guyz having small boats. Its another beautiful place with calm and crystal clear water. You can go snorkelling and see amazing structures of Corals and their varieties in colours and shapes. Damn, you can see equally colourful fishes. I never had a clue I could see them in wild. Amazing experience it was. The local guyz charged us Rs. 800/- for the trip to Elephant Beach. You should visit it within 9 AM to avoid the crowd.

Damn it, I had forgotten to mention... Crows... Crows make different sound there. Its more wild and intense than how crows sound in South India. Cocunuts!!! ho they have 1 Litre of water stored up in them... u just keep drinking them... on and on... Naveed could not finish 'em up.

Coming back to Port-Blair. I did not mention much of Ferry ride. It was superb experience standing on top of the ferry all while travelling. Naveed has captured one of the best sunset pictures while travelling on this ferry back to Port-Blair.

Also he has captured one photo which I treasure most (the one I've used at the top) - on Havelock island at the Island Vinnie's beach.

We had two choice with a day left for us. Either make a visit to Red Skin Island and go snorkelling and have nice time or try ChediyaTapu (which not much toruists are not aware of yet).
We decided to visit ChediyaTapu. Am sure, its going to be one top priority spot for toruists in coming days.

Chediyatapu is covered by Land on 3 sides and hence has almost stand-still sea. It has nice view with trees submerged in water. Its the southern most point of Andaman (PortBlair) Island. We took a local transportation bus to reach there. Dude, looks like all the bus conductors will do the duty being drunk :)

It's known for Sunset view. It has a sea facing the west.

From there, many tourists go till MundaPahar. Mundapahar is just a small beach. We found thousnads of Jelly Fishes on the shore. Dont know whether they were dying on the shores or its part of their life cycles.

Further from there we went to other side of the cliff crossing the forest. We can go in to the forest following a path way used by local fishermen I guess. I think, hardly any toursists go there. It must be around 400-500 M from Mundapahar. There the cliff opens to south-east facing Ocean. Open Ocean. Amazing place it was. We sat there on the edge of the cliff 50ft above the waters. Drank Amul Masti butter milk we had taken along. It was tiresome reaching these spots, with humidity and climbing the cliff.

Finally, If they say pictures (read photos) speak thousand words. Man!! Photos of this trip speak may be more but they fall short to portray what a place it is. You have to see to experience it.

Tour details:
Cost: Rs. 14K to 16K
Season time: Nov - Feb.

Ideally, 10-15 days is what is required to thoroughly enjoy these islands like Diglipur, Rangat, Jolly buoy Island, Long Island, Neil Island, Ross Island, Barren Island (Only active volcano in India) et al...

The place is not expensive in off-season time. I came to know that the charges for hotels and resorts double or triple during the season time (Nov - Feb).
People who do not want the places to be crowded (like us) should visit these islands during June-August.

INFO KEMPT:
This was another dream more related to Informtaion Technology world, in which I am working. This is about a huge Information base called "INFO KEMPT". It contains huge amount of data, data related to everyone and everything.

Its flat out on ground on some place in the shape of hour glass (2D on the ground). Its made up of small yello and cream coloured square piences. Each of these square pieces has some information and can be rotated on their own.

Each combination of squares of Info Kempt gives some data. It has data about everyone and everything they have done, good and bad.

Everyone wants the information base to be protected as it contains their mopst valuable data of their lives. At the same time they want it to be destroyed, as it contains sensitive and confidential, scandulous data of whatever they have done in their lives. If someone else gets hold of this information then the person will be in lot of trouble. Hence everyone wants it to be destroyed too.

INFO KEMPT is cursed one, everyone wants to keep it, and everyone wants to destroy it.

And no one was available to decipher the data present in the INFO KEMPT. And everyone feels like living on the edge as some day, sometime someone might be able to decipher and the information will be out.

Thast the end of it.

FREEDOM NATION:
This is my most precious Dream that I would like to cherish for my life. I do not know why it brings me such joy when I think of it.

Dream goes like this:
Its a evening setup beside a street. Street is not visible however. There is a book shop selling the old books. They have spread the books over the ground under a street light. As I was passing by, one book caught my attention. The book had turned from white into light brownnish white over the years of its use.

The book title was, "FREEDOM NATION". The title was written in kind of Brick/Tomato reddish colour. The picture over the book's cover page was a written picture and not a photograph.
The picture was of SnowLand. Complete snow from end to end. A line of Polar bears walking. Starting from the mid bottom of the page the line of bears continues till the bottom (near) of book Title. The line is curved like a arch.

The last Polar bear near the bottom of the page is hoisting a flag and then is about to proceed.

As I was about to leave the place, A polar bear came and sat on the book. It was light chocolate brown in colour with its mouth being cream. Then I was bit surprised about this. Then I started to leave the place, but the Bear had other plans... it ran to me and jumped on me to hug me near the waist. I cajoled it a bit and then it left me, but it repeated the same thin whenever I tried to leave.

Then I thought it would not leave me until I buy the book and take it too along with me. Then I went to shopkeeper and then started negotiating about the book and asked if I can get the bear too.

The Bear was looking at me and was jumping around. Now it was looking more like a dog, i.e. with dog like legs and it was not huge like regular polar bears. Now the colour of it was looking bit brownish black.

Thats the end of it.